A good summary of Space Missions

Planetary’s Blog is saving me a lot of time on researching What's Up in the Solar System in October 2012.

The map or chart showing all the missions and locations on the Solar System is particularly nice.

And the Voyager 1 and 2 are still listed! Didn’t now there is a twitter account to follow them!

But a good coverage of the missions from Mercury to Saturn and asteroids and comets.

Bottom up versus Top Down Logic

Listening to the SGU # 373 I reached the part of the Science of Fiction. This episode was live at DragonCon 2012. And here the 3 Science of Fiction news Items:

1. Scientists have discovered Western Scrub Jays performing a funeral-like behavior when they discover one of their members has died;
2. A recent study finds that adults are more likely to accept a supernatural explanation than children;
3. Researchers find that the shape of the glass affects how drunk alcohol-drinkers become

And Stephen Novella was able to wipe out his fellow skeptics but a little bit more than half the audience got it right. Listening to the podcast very late I was able to guess correctly, or at least got one right! Your guess?

Fiction is number #3, and all the panellists got it wrong, maybe because they are American so the 3rd did a lot of sense. And ALL chosen number #2 as Fiction. And I was sure that this one was Science all the time. So first some more research on the News Item and then why I think it is correct.

The SGU website points to the UPI website for the News Item:

“The findings show supernatural explanations for topics of core concern to humans are pervasive across cultures," Legare said in a statement. "If anything, in both industrialized and developing countries, supernatural explanations are frequently endorsed more often among adults than younger children.”, UPI

So I did some more research and tried to find the source, and the University of Texas, where Legare is from, has a much deeper article on the topic:

“Reliance on supernatural explanations for major life events, such as death and illness, often increases rather than declines with age, according to a new psychology study from The University of Texas at Austin” (Texas)

““As children assimilate cultural concepts into their intuitive belief systems — from God to atoms to evolution — they engage in coexistence thinking,” said Cristine Legare, assistant professor of psychology and lead author of the study. “When they merge supernatural and scientific explanations, they integrate them in a variety of predictable and universal ways.”” (Texas)

““The findings show supernatural explanations for topics of core concern to humans are pervasive across cultures,” Legare said. “If anything, in both industrialized and developing countries, supernatural explanations are frequently endorsed more often among adults than younger children.”” (Texas)

““The standard assumption that scientific and religious explanations compete should be re-evaluated in light of substantial psychological evidence,” Legare said. “The data, which spans diverse cultural contexts across the lifespan, shows supernatural reasoning is not necessarily replaced with scientific explanations following gains in knowledge, education or technology.”” (Texas)

I was able to find where the article is published but you have to be part of the club to have access to it. So I couldn’t read the source.

But Why I think it is correct?

This is the usual statistic of one and not very scientific, but if happen that you have kids or you are around kids and observe them you will find that kids have a very straightforward logic that they apply to every day things and to think about the Universe (Why? Why? Why?).

I will go with examples that you cannot generalize but if you have been carefully listening to your kids and observe others you will see this pattern:

• kids have to figure out cause and effect quickly. This matters: If I do A, the effect B will cause pain; basic survival;
• kids figure out first physical things, or cause and effects that have no intentions: if the glass drops from the table, it will crash; if something is hot, I get burnt (figuring out what it is hot or not is more complex, but also they are very good at that from 4 and up);
• also they can realize of intentions very quickly, but the intentions are again straightforward connections: if I cry I get food (or water, or a candy); if I cry all the time, I piss off the adults around me; if I kick the dog it will bite me (or bark at me and it is frightening – also figuring out attitudes frightening/friendly is very complex but they do right away)

With this logic machinery they start asking other questions:

• Why are so many different animals around us?
• Why do we die?
• Why is there Winter/Summer?
• Why do we stop growing?

For a particular example one kid asked me the last question, and carefully thinking on that I realized I didn’t have a good answer except: “This is the way it is” (remember this answer). In fact, I was thinking it was a very good question and I was trying to remember if there is some animal or plant that does not stop growing. And there are some, and there some ways that they never stop growing but… Other kid answered right away (5 years old): “Because if you do not stop growing you cannot get into a car, or a house”

The answer is great and of course wrong, but it shows this straightforward logic machinery in action. All living things grow, but somewhat they stop, and every creature has to be able to fit somewhere. This is what I call bottom up logic. Also the logic has its own beauty, because it can be tested, it does not assume a theological argument, and with some research you can come with some more rational answer like: “It is a capacity problem, based on available resources that are finite”. Technically are creatures that do not stop growing but they die, or they slow down their growth exponentially.

But this is a perfect logic machinery to keep intact. I think that it is screwed up for many reasons:

• It is that way because I say so; the authoritarian argument;
• Because I say so; again authoritarian;
• Because God wanted it to be like that; a theological argument;
• etc;

In any case all these logics are top down: you start with some non observable statement (“God”…) and then you follow from there. Anything that you elaborate from there will be by definition obtuse. And kids they have to learn this second logic machinery (more by memory rather than by reasoning) because peer pressure, social pressure, or I do not want my parents be mad at me (or something else I have no idea).

I still believe that both machineries keep working together. In a way you will use the 1st machine to figure out things that can kill you immediately: you can believe some witch pass to you HIV; but you know that jumping from a 10th floor is suicide, even if the same witch (or wizard, or priest or anyone) assures you a spell casted on you will save you. If you believe in the safe-landing-with-no-parachute spell, you have been totally brainwashed and of course your 1st machine has been disabled…

You rely more on the 2nd machine for things that the cause is not obvious or immediate (not using condoms will increase your chances of getting something nasty as HIV, but of course you do not believe that), or this argument (a.k.a. “belief”) is not something you care a lot about it (Hell for example).

References

• The Skeptics Guide to the Universe #373, Science of Fiction Item #2, SGU
• Adults like Supernatural Explanations, UPI – Health News, UPI
• People Merge Supernatural and Scientific Beliefs When Reasoning With the Unknown, Study Shows, University of Texas, Texas
• The Coexistence of Natural and Supernatural Explanations Across Cultures and Development, Wiley Online Library, Wiley

For More Info:

• Jessica Sinn, College of Liberal Arts, 512-471-2404;
• Cristine Legare, assistant professor, Department of Psychology, 512-468-8238, legare@psy.utexas.edu

Doom's Name: 2011 AG5

Asteroid 2011 AG5: a football-stadium-sized rock to watch carefully

It seems that Apophis will still hit the Earth in 2036 (by 49 million Km, pufff!). But there is another medium size kid in the block. Not a planet killer but big enough: asteroid 2011 AG5. Bad Astronomy has a good article in evaluating the options for start planning a mission to potentially change the orbit of the asteroid.

Before scaring anyone it is god to remember that NASA estimates very low the probability of an impact in a recently update: Asteroid 2011 AG5 - A Reality Check. Ranked "1" in the Torino Scale...

With something with so low probability to happen (crash into Earth) and only one agency from one country maybe considering it (NASA/US) I cannot see the people deciding where to expend the budget to invest some money on a close up mission and a potentially deflecting one.

But it would be nice just for 2 other things even if it is downgrade to Torino level "0":

1. the scientific value of a mission like this
2. it will be cool to follow the news of a mission to deflect an asteroid, even just for practice!

The 2nd option I think it's more important: if really we have to deflect an asteroid, I'm sure we will not do it correctly the first time, so some practice will come handy (and we can put some military-oriented minds on shooting at something useful for all mankind)

Getting Closer to catch the Higgs

Maybe the most amazing hunting so far in Physics! But the final comment sounds very "futbolistico":

"Boost for Higgs from Tevatron data : Nature News & Comment: For the now-closed Tevatron, a demonstration of sensitivity to the Higgs can be seen as a kind of moral victory, says theorist Gordon Kane of the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor. In 2011, researchers at Fermilab argued for an extension to the machine's run, on the grounds that they might be able to obtain evidence for the Higgs if they had more time, but their proposal was turned down by the US Department of Energy"

Ok, you did not make the goals, but morally won....

 Jokes apart, the search is fascinating. That some indication of the Higgs could be buried in the data of the Tevatron is cool. Taking in consideration the shutdown of the accelerator, and the suspension of the next generation accelerator by the US...

But it is for the LHC to find it. I hope so.

Started a book on particles (going back to my beloved physics) but yet not get a fully idea of what the article is talking about....

Einstein got it right. Again! Neutrinos respect speed limit…

Ok – a long time not here. But it is good to go back with some interesting and funny (you can say that) news item. At the end neutrinos are encased within the Relativity Laws, they didn’t stunned scientists, but instead a faulty technical plug was the cause of very much excitement…

Not final on this but 2 potential errors can put the neutrinos back into Eintein’s realm, from Nature’s reporting:

• “the passage of time on the clocks between the arrival of the synchronizing signal has to be interpolated and OPERA now says this may not have been done correctly”
• “there was a possible faulty connection between the GPS signal and the OPERA master clock”

Scientific American reports basically on the same. Amazing Einstein!

And complicated experimental science. 60 nanoseconds! And just a faulty connector! Audio engineers know this well, and one of my teachers in Engineering school always said “plug in two cables and you will create some sparks. Beware of connections!”